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CIA Director Burns subsequently went to Moscow to effort and intimidate Putin into revoking troop buildup on Ukrainian border
[Russell Bentley, a Texan and author of this article, served in the Donbass army. His motivation was to fight fascism; he envisioned himself as an heir to members of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade who volunteered to fight fascism in Spain during the Spanish Civil War.
In part one, Bentley's provides an assessment of the electric current tensions in the Ukraine and the graphic symbol of the authorities. Ranked as ane of the almost corrupt governments in the globe, information technology is a monstrous cosmos of the U.Southward. empire guilty of large-calibration war crimes.
In part two, Bentley discusses three potential armed forces options for Russian federation. CAM's position on this disharmonize is to endorse the Minsk protocol, which focuses on a diplomatic settlement that offers the Eastern Ukrainian provinces considerable autonomy and could help defuse tensions in the region.
The 3rd military option discussed by Bentley—the Kyiv plan which would entail a Russian march on Kyiv—has three main dangers: a) Ukrainian rightists and nationalists would mobilize against the Russians and pro-Russian forces, prompting a prolonged and devastating war that could be a quagmire for Russia (rather than a cakewalk, as Bentley suggests); b) a Russian invasion would potentially ignite World State of war 3 by drawing in the U.South. and NATO; and c) it could even lead to the appearance of nuclear war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be conscious of these dangers and intent on restraining hawkish elements within the Russian armed services—a skillful thing. At the same fourth dimension, he has made it articulate that Russia volition defend its interests and non be pushed effectually.—Editors]
Part i
On October 18th, U.S. Secretary of Defence force Lloyd Austin 3 met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to assert U.S. support for Ukraine's state of war against its eastern provinces.
Since the starting time of the conflict in 2014, the Us has provided more than than $ii.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, including $275 1000000 in military assist that has been announced in the last ten months under President Joe Biden, a staunch champion of the war from its inception.
In early Nov, President Biden dispatched CIA Director William F. Burns to Moscow to warn the Kremlin about its troop buildup on the Ukraine border and to attempt and strength it to back off. Secretary of State Antony Blinken followed up this past calendar week by threatening Russia farther in a joint press conference in Washington with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Ukraine, however, started the war post-obit the February 2014 U.S. backed coup and carried out sustained war crimes.
These crimes include: a) the recent kidnapping and torture of a Russian armistice monitor in Lugansk; b) a recent assault on Staromaryevka, a settlement of 180 civilians in the de-militarized "Gray Zone," which included the kidnapping of eight more unarmed civilians (who were too Russian citizens) by neo-Nazi terrorists; and c) the use of a Turkish Bayraktar attack drone against Donbass defense forces.
All this is in addition to the repeated shelling of noncombatant areas and infrastructure along with a hardening of state of war rhetoric by the Kyiv regime—with U.S. backing.
Readying for State of war
The main hope for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine lies with the Minsk peace accords—which includes a provision that would allow for considerable autonomy for the eastern provinces. Predictably, the U.Southward. and Ukraine have shown little involvement in adhering to the Minsk accords.
A no-wing zone is currently being enforced past Russia in the airspace over the Donbass Democracy. Russia cannot recognize the Donetsk Republic because information technology would invite further U.South. sanctions and efforts at political isolation; the Donetsk Republic is considered to be a renegade and the U.South. wants Russia to stay out of the war.
All armed services units of the DPR are currently on full gainsay alert. News reports and videos have appeared with Russian armor, including "hundreds" of heavy combat vehicles, and fourscore,000 to 90,000 troops, moving toward the Ukrainian border from the Bryansk, Voronezh and Rostov military districts. They are stationed at Novy Yerkovich—a 4-hour (250 km) bulldoze to Kyiv—and along the edge near Kharkov, which lies a scant 30 kilometers from Russian federation'southward border.
The troop buildup indicates that Russia is prepared to defend the Donbass region, which consists of most a million Russian citizens, and to potentially get further and liberate the function of Ukraine populated primarily by ethnic and Russian-speaking Russians.
The U.Southward./Eu/NATO and Ukraine take all been pretending since 2014 that "Russia invaded Ukraine"—which it never did, though Ukrainian provocations brand information technology more likely that it soon volition.
The war in Ukraine is non a Ukrainian ceremonious state of war, nor is it a war between Russians and Ukrainians.
It is a war by resurgent international neo-Nazism, led by the USA against a people fighting for their autonomy backed by a reinvigorated Not bad Power, Russia, which wants to expand its regional influence and counteract a legitimate security threat on its border.
World Flash Point
The fight in Donbass is 1 of the major globe'due south flash points alongside Syria and Taiwan—where U.S. provocations threaten a major war with People's republic of china.
If the Due west forces a military confrontation with Russia in Ukraine, it can be certain information technology volition face 1 with China over Taiwan simultaneously, neither of which it has any gamble of winning. The Russians and Chinese have forged a partnership against Western, primarily U.S. assailment in the political, economic, and armed forces spheres.
In Syria, the Turks (a NATO member) take in recent days directly threatened Russian military installations and troops; Should they actually carry out attacks on Russians in Syrian arab republic, Russia has made clear it volition fire back. Turkish troops are now likewise on the footing in Ukraine, involved in combat operations against Donbass Defense force Forces. This too, is a major and recent escalation.
Russia Prepares Its Saddle
Simply it is in Donbass that the situation is the most incendiary. In response to recent Ukrainian provocations and acts of terrorism, Russia is again sending a military job force to its border with Ukraine, every bit it did in the spring of this twelvemonth, which stopped the planned U.S./Ukrainian offensive in its tracks.
After the offensive was scrubbed and the situation de-escalated, the Russian troops withdrew from the edge, merely now again take returned. This fourth dimension, indications are that the Russian formations are preparing to, at minimum, come up into Donbass every bit peacekeepers, and perhaps go equally far as Kharkov and Odessa as Liberators. Maybe fifty-fifty to Kyiv.
Every bit the recent words of Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev and others have made clear, the Russians accept now decided that the time for talking is over. There is an one-time maxim about Russians that applies perfectly well to the current situation—"The Russians are dull to saddle their horses, but when they do, they ride very, very fast."
Those horses have now been saddled.
Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
If the Russians were to deepen their involvement in the Ukraine, they would not exist doing annihilation the U.Southward. and NATO have not done themselves on more than than one occasion.
Russia not but has thecorrectto protect its citizens, it has the responsibleness to do then, under international law.
The "R2P" or "Responsibleness to Protect" concept is based on three "pillars" –
Pillar I—Each individual state has the responsibility to protect its population from genocide, state of war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity.
Pillar Two—"States pledge to assist each other in their protection responsibilities."
Pillar 3—If any state is "manifestly failing" in its protection responsibilities, then states should take collective action to protect the population" in a "timely and decisive response."
The UN Security Quango has recognized and reaffirmed its delivery to the R2P in more than than lxxx resolutions. R2P as such has the force of international police force.
The flip side of R2P is that it has been used as an excuse past the nearly powerful countries for international war crimes and has resulted in the trampling of land sovereignty.
I of the requirements of R2P is a United nations Security Quango resolution approving its implementation. Though this volition never happen in the instance of Ukraine, there can exist no doubt that Ukraine is, in fact, guilty of all the crimes that R2P was created to forestall, including a) state of war crimes, b) ethnic cleansing, and c) crimes against humanity, all of which take been, and go along to be, committed by the Kyiv government and its armed forces on a daily footing.
Russian intervention every bit such could be justified nether the R2P doctrine–though it is unlikely any NATO countries would acknowledge this.
Who Will Stop the Crimes Against Humanity?
The list of Kyiv's war crimes under international law include: a) denial of water to almost ii.5 million civilians in Crimea, b) the intentional targeting of civilians, journalists and medical personnel past artillery and snipers, c) random terror attacks on noncombatant areas, d) kidnapping, eastward) rape, f) torture and thousand) murder.
The Russians accept over 2,000 specific state of war crimes cases open confronting the Kyiv government and its proxies, and more are being opened daily. Even the USA has opened war crimes investigations into at least seven U.Due south. citizens who fought on the Kyiv side in the war.
These investigations into kidnapping, torture, rape, and murder are based on eyewitness, and video and forensic evidence. Information technology will exist the first time the U.S. has prosecuted anyone under the War Crimes Act since its passage into law in 1996, a quarter century ago.
The Ukrainian military has as of this writing massacred at to the lowest degree x,000 ethnic Russian civilians. Some were killed in house-to-firm searches of noncombatant homes past paramilitary units wearing Nazi insignia on their uniforms. The Gestapo-like forces were searching for DPR and Russian passports and kidnapped those who had them.
The Russians cannot only stand by and allow this to happen. And neither should Americans.
Western intellectuals have been quick to invoke R2P to back up the bombing of Libya and Syrian arab republic and a host of other Middle Due east countries as a cover for U.S. aggression. Only how many will invoke the aforementioned doctrine when information technology can exist applied to actually save people from big-scale ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity—if Russia is the ane doing the saving? Likely none.
Part two: Iii Options for Russia
The mode I encounter it, Russia currently has three main options:
1) The Donbass Plan—The Russian Army tin can roll into Donbass every bit peacekeepers, along the current contact line from North of Lugansk to Mariupol, after publicly announcing it to the world a few hours ahead of time, in order to warn the Ukrainian military against resistance, and to explicate and justify its humanitarian intervention to the "international community." They would announce that they come in peace to end the war crimes and the state of war, only that any armed forces resistance from any source will be instantly eliminated, with the warning, "If yous shoot at united states, y'all dice."
This ultimatum would be non-negotiable and backed up past Russia'due south full military power, including air and missile forces, and applied not just to Ukrainian military units, simply to U.S. and NATO troops in Ukraine and U.Due south. and NATO ships in the Black Sea, too as anywhere else. Information technology can and should also include a reminder of Putin's previous quote that"Russia volition respond to any attack by the destruction not only of the source of the attack, simply likewise the source of the orders for the attack."
This option would stop all terrorist attacks confronting Donbass, permanently and completely, and would hopefully give time for a diplomatic solution based on new political realities to be found. It would too non entail the taking of any territory nether Ukraine control, only that which has long been alleged under "Russian occupation".
Once information technology is seen that the Russians reallyare coming, and they reallydo hateful business organisation, it is unlikely that the Americans, NATO, or the Ukrainians will burn down a shot. This is the to the lowest degree confrontational and least risky arroyo, as it could be achieved in a affair of 24 hours, with minimal bloodshed.
This may seem to be a businesslike solution, but it has the to the lowest degree chance of finding a political compromise or permanent solution, in either the short or long terms. And while it would terminate war crimes and protect Russian citizens, it would fail to resolve the overriding geopolitical problems Russian federation faces in Ukraine—belligerent war criminals on Russia's borders, the critical Crimean water security result, foreign enemies in control of a neighboring state, etc. One advantage to this plan, however, is that could be used equally a first phase of the Novorussia Plan.
2) The second option is The Novorussia Programme. Nether this program, the Russians tin can liberate the area known as Novorussia, about 1 third of current Ukraine, with bulk ethnic Russian populations, running along a line from Kharkov to Odessa (inclusive). This not just protects the vast majority of indigenous Russians (not merely those in Donbass) from Ukrainian depredations, information technology solves the critical humanitarian water crisis in Crimea, and cuts Ukraine completely off from the Black Sea. This will also eviscerate all that is left of the Ukrainian economic system and begin the process of the dismantling of Ukraine along indigenous lines while eliminating it every bit a state and as a threat to Russia once and for all.
It volition also serve as an example to the world of the new political reality that Russia reserves the correct to defend itself, unilaterally, if need be, and that the nation with the most powerful military in the globe too has the political will to employ information technology, if it has no other selection and if it is forced to defend itself. This scenario has the best hope of long-term stability for the region, and even the possibility of a hereafter re-integration of some parts of central Ukraine with Novorussia.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of state of war criminals would probably escape to the West, at least for a while.
three) The third programme, the Kyiv Plan, would be to become to Kyiv, which may or may not involve engaging in a major state of war. In the best case scenario for Russia, the U.Due south. and NATO would desert Ukraine in the confront of a real fight and leave them on their own. Fifty-fifty if Ukraine did not capitulate in the first few hours, any actual disharmonize could be finished in a few days, and the procedure of de-Nazification and war law-breaking trials could begin. In an culling scenario, the U.Southward. and NATO would launch air strikes and the state of war could devolve into a quagmire for Russia, with the risk of nuclear war intensifying.
My belief is that the outcome of the open gainsay phase of the war would be along the lines of the Commencement Iraq War, (with fourscore% – 90% of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering without firing a shot) but the subsequent "occupation" would actually be a real liberation. With the removal of neo-Nazis and corrupt oligarchs from positions of power, and the improvement of life quality and life chances for a vast majority of the population, well-nigh Ukrainians (with the exception of the rabid fascists in Galicia or Poland) will run across the Russian Army as their grandparents saw the Red Ground forces, as heroes and liberators from foreign occupation—which is exactly what they would be.
This may be the least feasible and least attractive of the iii scenarios, only it is an choice, and it would have the required effect of stopping the war crimes confronting Russian citizens and eliminating Ukraine as an existential threat right on Russia's doorstep. It would also have the do good of the capture a large percentage of war criminals (Ukrainian and otherwise) besides as documents and show that might be of bully interest to history, Russia and the earth—an option worthy of serious consideration.
Of all three of these plans, the second, the Novorussia Plan has the near benefit at the least cost. Only going to the contact line in Donbass is not sufficient to resolve the festering Ukrainian problem, and going all the way to Kyiv may well cost more than than it is worth. The Novorussia Program resolves all critical problems at an acceptable price, and can exist implemented, if demand be, equally a second phase of the Donbass Program.
With the Voronezh troops coming in through (or around) Kharkov, Airborne and amphibious troops landing in (or effectually) Odessa, the Rostov Ground forces coming upwards through Donbass, and the Crimean Ground forces and Black Sea Fleet working forth the coast, along with the Bryansk Army waiting in reserve and ready to accept Kyiv if required, the 700 Km Forepart, running from Kharkov to Odessa could be formed and held in a matter of days.
Once Russian fuel and human aid starting time to flow to liberated Novorussia, grateful citizens volition not only non oppose Russian "occupation," they will back up it as genuine liberation, and fifty-fifty be set to defend it themselves from the cold and hungry Ukrainians who will be begging to exist allowed to immigrate to Novorussia.
Incorrigible Nazis and war criminals will be rounded upwards, tried, and sentenced to work battalions in Donbass, to repair every unmarried matter destroyed or damaged in the war, including the monument at Saur Mogila and all monuments to the Red Army Liberators in the newly liberated lands of Novorussia. The bulk of Russian soldiers will quickly be free to return to Russia, and leave the administration and protection of the newly liberated lands to their inhabitants.
-
Russians visiting Saur Mogila memorial to red Army soldiers who liberated Donetsk from the Nazis in World War I. [Source: inthefray.org] -
Separatist flags fly over ruins. [Source: inthefray.org]
Vladimir Putin has more than than once recounted a lesson that he learned every bit a youth on the tough streets of Leningrad."If the fight is inevitable, information technology is all-time to strike first."
If war indeed breaks out, the main responsibility would rest with the U.S. which triggered the current mess through its sponsorship of the Feb 2014 coup in Ukraine and gave a dark-green-low-cal for Ukraine to attack its Eastern provinces.
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About the Writer
Russell Bentley is a erstwhile Texan who holds passports from Russia, the U.s.a. and the Donetsk People's Republic.
Russell came to Donbass in 2014 and served in the VOSTOK Battalion and XAH Spetsnaz Battalion through 2015.
He then transitioned into the Information War, every bit a writer and video reporter, countering Western propaganda most the state of affairs in Ukraine and Donbass.
He currently works as an accredited war correspondent in the DPR, is married and lives in a minor house with a big garden, five Km from the frontline in the ongoing Donbass War.
Russell can be reached at: russellbbentley@gmail.com.
Source: https://covertactionmagazine.com/2021/11/12/is-biden-looking-to-reignite-a-dirty-war-in-ukraine-recent-visit-by-u-s-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raises-concerns/
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